David Rosenberg launches two ETFs betting oil stays expensive through 2026
WTI crude spent most of 2024 and 2025 stuck in the $70, $85 range, resisting every argument that it should fall. High interest rates didn't break it. Concerns about Chinese demand didn't break it. The market kept waiting for the floor to crack. It hasn't.
David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, thinks that floor is structural. The reason isn't geopolitics alone, though the Red Sea disruptions and the Russia-Ukraine war certainly matter. The deeper problem is a decade of underinvestment in fossil fuel exploration and production. Global upstream oil and gas capital expenditure remains roughly 20% below its 2014 peak. That shortfall has consequences.
Rosenberg is betting real money on the thesis. He launched two new ETFs in partnership with Horizons ETFs and Global X: the Rosenberg Research Systematic Equity ETF and the Rosenberg Research Defensive Core Index ETF. Both are designed to hedge against inflation driven by energy supply constraints and market volatility tied to that pressure.
The green transition is making oil expensive
The paradox Rosenberg emphasizes is what he calls "green-flation." Environmental, Social, and Governance mandates have starved traditional energy projects of institutional capital. Lenders won't finance them. Investors won't back them. Meanwhile, solar panels, wind turbines, and battery storage cannot yet meet global demand at scale. The result is a supply gap in the energy the world still runs on.
Rosenberg's argument is that this isn't a temporary dislocation. The transition to Net Zero is inflationary in the medium term because it destroys supply before alternatives are ready. Crude prices remain elevated because supply has been deliberately constrained by policy and capital allocation decisions made years ago.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, historically a tool for suppressing price spikes, remains significantly below its 2021 average. OPEC+ continues to manage production targets aggressively, currently aiming for a long-term Brent equilibrium near $80. These aren't emergency measures. They're the new baseline.
Why this matters for portfolios
Central banks face a harder problem when inflation is driven by supply shocks rather than demand. You can't fix an oil supply shortage with interest rate hikes. Rosenberg argues that the traditional 60% stocks, 40% bonds portfolio fails in this environment because both asset classes struggle when energy-led inflation persists.
His Defensive Core Index ETF reflects that view. It prioritizes real assets and energy-sensitive equities as stabilizers, moving away from the S&P 500's heavy concentration in technology. The Systematic Equity ETF follows a similar logic, targeting quality factors and defensive growth rather than chasing momentum in sectors vulnerable to energy cost pressures.
Rosenberg's frame is that energy prices now act as a regressive tax on consumers, eroding the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic era. Higher-for-longer oil isn't a market view. It's a constraint on household balance sheets, corporate margins, and central bank flexibility.
The counterargument exists. U.S. shale producers have become significantly more efficient, producing record volumes with fewer rigs. China's EV adoption is accelerating faster than most Western analysts expected, potentially eroding the demand floor. A severe global recession would historically override supply constraints, forcing prices down regardless of capital expenditure levels.
Rosenberg isn't predicting recession. He's positioning for a world where the energy regime has shifted from disinflationary to supply-constrained, and where that shift is durable enough to define portfolio construction through 2026 and beyond. The ETF launches are the concrete expression of that conviction.
WTI crude spent most of 2024 and 2025 stuck in the $70, $85 range, resisting every argument that it should fall. High interest rates didn't break it. Concerns about Chinese demand didn't break it. The market kept waiting for the floor to crack. It hasn't.
David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, thinks that floor is structural. The reason isn't geopolitics alone, though the Red Sea disruptions and the Russia-Ukraine war certainly matter. The deeper problem is a decade of underinvestment in fossil fuel exploration and production. Global upstream oil and gas capital expenditure remains roughly 20% below its 2014 peak. That shortfall has consequences.
Rosenberg is betting real money on the thesis. He launched two new ETFs in partnership with Horizons ETFs and Global X: the Rosenberg Research Systematic Equity ETF and the Rosenberg Research Defensive Core Index ETF. Both are designed to hedge against inflation driven by energy supply constraints and market volatility tied to that pressure.
The green transition is making oil expensive
The paradox Rosenberg emphasizes is what he calls "green-flation." Environmental, Social, and Governance mandates have starved traditional energy projects of institutional capital. Lenders won't finance them. Investors won't back them. Meanwhile, solar panels, wind turbines, and battery storage cannot yet meet global demand at scale. The result is a supply gap in the energy the world still runs on.
Rosenberg's argument is that this isn't a temporary dislocation. The transition to Net Zero is inflationary in the medium term because it destroys supply before alternatives are ready. Crude prices remain elevated because supply has been deliberately constrained by policy and capital allocation decisions made years ago.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, historically a tool for suppressing price spikes, remains significantly below its 2021 average. OPEC+ continues to manage production targets aggressively, currently aiming for a long-term Brent equilibrium near $80. These aren't emergency measures. They're the new baseline.
Why this matters for portfolios
Central banks face a harder problem when inflation is driven by supply shocks rather than demand. You can't fix an oil supply shortage with interest rate hikes. Rosenberg argues that the traditional 60% stocks, 40% bonds portfolio fails in this environment because both asset classes struggle when energy-led inflation persists.
His Defensive Core Index ETF reflects that view. It prioritizes real assets and energy-sensitive equities as stabilizers, moving away from the S&P 500's heavy concentration in technology. The Systematic Equity ETF follows a similar logic, targeting quality factors and defensive growth rather than chasing momentum in sectors vulnerable to energy cost pressures.
Rosenberg's frame is that energy prices now act as a regressive tax on consumers, eroding the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic era. Higher-for-longer oil isn't a market view. It's a constraint on household balance sheets, corporate margins, and central bank flexibility.
The counterargument exists. U.S. shale producers have become significantly more efficient, producing record volumes with fewer rigs. China's EV adoption is accelerating faster than most Western analysts expected, potentially eroding the demand floor. A severe global recession would historically override supply constraints, forcing prices down regardless of capital expenditure levels.
Rosenberg isn't predicting recession. He's positioning for a world where the energy regime has shifted from disinflationary to supply-constrained, and where that shift is durable enough to define portfolio construction through 2026 and beyond. The ETF launches are the concrete expression of that conviction.
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