CREA Trimmed Its 2026 Home Sales Forecast Again: What the Pattern Signals
Through August 2026, home sales across Canada were running 6.9% below the year before, and the average sale price was up 0.6%, to $668,219. Fewer homes changed hands, and the ones that did sold for slightly more. That pairing explains the Canadian Real Estate Association's latest forecast. CREA now expects about 444,530 sales by year-end, 5.2% fewer than in 2025 and 1.4% below its own estimate from earlier in the year.
Each trim to the forecast records one more season of people deciding not to move yet. It says very little about where prices are headed, and almost nothing about Edmonton specifically. If you're planning to buy, sell or add a rental, the useful question is how many homes are actually for sale near you and whether your own numbers work. Forecasters have kept expecting a rebound as the Bank of Canada cut rates. The rebound keeps sliding further out, and the reason why tells you how to read the market.
Both sides of the deal are waiting
Many owners locked in five-year fixed rates around 2021. Selling means giving up that rate and taking a new mortgage at today's higher one, so plenty of them stay put. That keeps listings thin. On the other side, buyers still have to pass the stress test, which checks whether you could carry the payment at a rate higher than the one you're offered. The Bank of Canada has brought its rate down, but it's expected to settle above where it sat before the pandemic, so qualifying stays hard. First-time buyers putting money into a First Home Savings Account are building bigger down payments, and many still come up short on the income side.
When sellers and buyers both hold back, sales fall and prices barely move. People often assume lower sales volume pushes prices down. That only happens when listings pile up faster than buyers can absorb them. If fewer people list, the smaller pool of buyers is still competing for a smaller pool of homes, and prices can hold or edge up. That's what the August numbers show.
A national number is an average of very different cities
Nationally, inventory sat at 4.8 months of sales in August 2026. That's how long it would take to sell every listed home at the current pace. The national figure blends Toronto and Vancouver, where activity has slowed sharply, with markets like Edmonton that have behaved differently. Alberta has drawn strong migration from other provinces in recent years. That flow is expected to ease somewhat through 2026, but new construction in the province's big cities still hasn't kept up with population growth. Edmonton's single-family inventory has stayed below its historical average, which gives prices for well-located detached homes a floor.
So check the months of inventory for the neighbourhood and property type you're watching. It's a better guide than the national sales count. A buyer who waits for an Edmonton price drop because Toronto sales fell may simply end up with fewer homes to choose from.
What a slower market gives you
Fewer competing offers can mean room to ask for inspections, conditions and possession dates that were hard to get in 2021 and 2022. For sellers, a slower market means pricing to recent local sales and being ready to wait. Some owners who can't get their number will rent the home out instead, so check that the rent covers the mortgage. Rents nationally were down 4.2% year over year in September 2026, and a rental that only works at last year's rent is a risk.
Owners renewing a 2021 mortgage this year face higher payments. Slower sales add pressure on the Bank of Canada to keep easing, which may help later in the year, but nobody can promise the timing. Plan around the payment you can carry now.
For investors, the asset that matters most in this market is the ability to hold through a slow year without being forced to sell.
The forecast will probably move again. If you can carry the home comfortably at today's rates and you plan to stay through a slow market, the headline doesn't change your decision.
Through August 2026, home sales across Canada were running 6.9% below the year before, and the average sale price was up 0.6%, to $668,219. Fewer homes changed hands, and the ones that did sold for slightly more. That pairing explains the Canadian Real Estate Association's latest forecast. CREA now expects about 444,530 sales by year-end, 5.2% fewer than in 2025 and 1.4% below its own estimate from earlier in the year.
Each trim to the forecast records one more season of people deciding not to move yet. It says very little about where prices are headed, and almost nothing about Edmonton specifically. If you're planning to buy, sell or add a rental, the useful question is how many homes are actually for sale near you and whether your own numbers work. Forecasters have kept expecting a rebound as the Bank of Canada cut rates. The rebound keeps sliding further out, and the reason why tells you how to read the market.
Both sides of the deal are waiting
Many owners locked in five-year fixed rates around 2021. Selling means giving up that rate and taking a new mortgage at today's higher one, so plenty of them stay put. That keeps listings thin. On the other side, buyers still have to pass the stress test, which checks whether you could carry the payment at a rate higher than the one you're offered. The Bank of Canada has brought its rate down, but it's expected to settle above where it sat before the pandemic, so qualifying stays hard. First-time buyers putting money into a First Home Savings Account are building bigger down payments, and many still come up short on the income side.
When sellers and buyers both hold back, sales fall and prices barely move. People often assume lower sales volume pushes prices down. That only happens when listings pile up faster than buyers can absorb them. If fewer people list, the smaller pool of buyers is still competing for a smaller pool of homes, and prices can hold or edge up. That's what the August numbers show.
A national number is an average of very different cities
Nationally, inventory sat at 4.8 months of sales in August 2026. That's how long it would take to sell every listed home at the current pace. The national figure blends Toronto and Vancouver, where activity has slowed sharply, with markets like Edmonton that have behaved differently. Alberta has drawn strong migration from other provinces in recent years. That flow is expected to ease somewhat through 2026, but new construction in the province's big cities still hasn't kept up with population growth. Edmonton's single-family inventory has stayed below its historical average, which gives prices for well-located detached homes a floor.
So check the months of inventory for the neighbourhood and property type you're watching. It's a better guide than the national sales count. A buyer who waits for an Edmonton price drop because Toronto sales fell may simply end up with fewer homes to choose from.
What a slower market gives you
Fewer competing offers can mean room to ask for inspections, conditions and possession dates that were hard to get in 2021 and 2022. For sellers, a slower market means pricing to recent local sales and being ready to wait. Some owners who can't get their number will rent the home out instead, so check that the rent covers the mortgage. Rents nationally were down 4.2% year over year in September 2026, and a rental that only works at last year's rent is a risk.
Owners renewing a 2021 mortgage this year face higher payments. Slower sales add pressure on the Bank of Canada to keep easing, which may help later in the year, but nobody can promise the timing. Plan around the payment you can carry now.
For investors, the asset that matters most in this market is the ability to hold through a slow year without being forced to sell.
The forecast will probably move again. If you can carry the home comfortably at today's rates and you plan to stay through a slow market, the headline doesn't change your decision.
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